Return Styles: Pseud0ch, Terminal, Valhalla, NES, Geocities, Blue Moon. Entire thread

Stock investment tips.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2012-12-16 16:13

So certain events have occurred and I've decided to be a millionaire instead of a nurse, mainly to avoid any misunderstandings, since any misunderstandings would be big misunderstandings.

Anyway, I have my flaws, people misunderstand me, which I believe I have mentioned, perhaps I also am impatient and prefer to go my own way when learning things and end up out of the loop, not using the right terms and lingo, however on the plus side I have often been called a good judge of people/character and I believe I am quite competent and intelligent when I am committed.

What would be the absolute raw basics of investment then? I believe that I have the potential to become exceptional if I apply my finely honed reasoning skills to this task. I shall have my million in no time.

Name: idpurpose !eoPD6MpjJM 2013-03-04 13:21

>>79

Excellent points about reasoning, I never really thought about it in that manner.

"Well" we dumped our nog at 13.90 when oil broke 89.75 just like I said i would.. turned out to be the right move. We also completely exited ANIK.

I am very afraid of the markets right now. We are holding onto our CNAM our primary long term holding. And we are going to cash. We are shorting the euro. As well as several other large cap companies.

I am expecting the markets to pull back somewhat over the next few weeks, and I'm afraid to have any positions here besides some careful shorts and shorting the euro, and of course our cnam, which is so undervalued, it doesn't even matter what the market does really, cnam will probably trade down a bit, but not enough to make me exit since the liquidity is rather low.


Yes NOG has a lot going for it, the reason it was high was primarily profit expectations, but it has consistently missed it's earnings estimates, imo due to management lack of experience. I see signs that management is making some very smart moves lately, and they beat last estimate, so signs are the company is turning around.

The value of their oil reserves is enormous. One key market event that might add a lot of long term value to NOG, is the completion of the approval of the Keystone pipeline that runs right around their territory.

If the keystone pipeline gets through it will unblock oil from the US heartland and allow Canada to export more oil, and raise oil prices in the united states.

If keystone XL gets approved than this stock would probably be a long term hold, again the key thing here is oil prices, and i'm not willing to own it while the economy is pulling back and oil prices might be headed to 85-80 bbl.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-04 18:35

>>81
I'm guessing Obama's go ahead to the $85 billion cuts and the fallout from China's attempt to cool its potentially bubbling real estate market are responsible. Does this mean China Armco Metals will take longer to pick up? The moves by China may actually be beneficial in the long term since in theory, if they cool real estate for long enough, natural demand for real estate will catch up to supply thereby deflating the real estate bubble gradually.

The rest of the week should be interesting, I should probably start looking at a wider range of stock and try to analyze them as well.

Why are you shorting the euro?

' If the keystone pipeline gets through it will unblock oil from the US heartland and allow Canada to export more oil, and raise oil prices in the united states.
Wouldn't increasing supply decrease price?

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-05 18:29

China artificially boosted stock with spending. Oil rebounded.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/05/uk-markets-global-idUKBRE87514J20130305
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/1258104/1/.html

Not a huge change, seems to be lingering just above 90.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CLJ13.NYM+Interactive#symbol=clj13.nym;range=5d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

China seems to want to cool real estate specifically and encourage investment in industry and services, it can afford this due to its relatively low government debt, though I believe it would have been better if it didn't arbitrarily interfere in the economy to begin with as then China wouldn't have these problems to begin with.

This is a factor in favor of CNAM and NOG, CNAM isn't in any trouble, NOG I haven't completely researched. Panic selling can stunt investments or it might result in undervaluation and result in more opportunities.

Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 20:27

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Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 20:28

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Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 20:29

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Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 20:30

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Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 20:31

Shit, failed again.

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Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 20:35

Terrible!

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Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 21:42

Here we go again

Trying to nest quotes on Shiitchan in a reasonable manner

Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 21:43

I fucking hate you
Trying to nest quotes on Shiitchan in a reasonable manner

Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 21:44

Why did you code this shit
like
this


Why did you code this shit
like
this

Name: Anonymous 2013-03-05 22:35

Fucking
awful

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-06 18:26

NOG is having their earnings announcement. May have been a smart move given the information to hold earlier given the information available, though I don't think they are in any big trouble.

Earlier I was looking at another gas company, Igas, that had surged 50% from Dec 15 to Dec 31 on speculation that it would get a fracking go ahead. You have to be pretty observant to catch these events I guess, just as important as being able to confirm there is a good chance of them occurring without too much risk.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IGAS.L+Interactive#symbol=igas.l;range=3m;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Oil, technology and BRIC nations seem to be growth hotspots worth of attention.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_f5zcyt1r8

He doesn't seem very calm.

>>84-93
oh dear

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-08 0:25

I noticed some flaws in yahoo finance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s_conameu.html
Here some sectors have unrealistic 1 day price changes due to gaps in yahoo's data for a few small companies.

Also this
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BVIC.L+Key+Statistics
Price/Book (mrq): 2,752.94
2,752.94 is also a ridiculous figure.

and this
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/313mktd.html
It says Ricoh, Ltd. has a market cap of 72 trillion which is obviously wrong.

Clearly multiple sources for the same information are essential when researching a potential buy. I am not phased, it is better to make these mistakes now rather than later.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-08 0:25

There are other convenient sources of information.
http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Sectors-And-Industries/Industrials/Building-Materials-and-Fixtures

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_Classification_Benchmark
http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya_characteristics.shtml
The "industry breakdown" sections provides some information I am looking for.
http://www.google.com/finance
Google lists businesses in each sector, though doesn't provide the features yahoo attempted to.

8000 Financials, banks compose 50% of the financial sector, insurance 20% and real estate 13%.
20.88% = 3.5 trillion

0001 Oil & Gas, lots of familiar names, exxon, shell, chevron, bp, petrobras, also petrochina.
16.25% of total market cap = 2.7 trillion
energy

2000 Industrials, industrial machinery (including vehicles and electronics) are the largest as you would expect, along with aerospace, transportation, construction, business finance/administration and defence they comprise 70% of the sector.
12.16% = 2 trillion
capital goods
transportation

3000 Consumer Goods, food and drink comprise 40% of this sector, tobacco, autos, clothing and footwear are also significant.
11.63% = 1.9 trillion
Cons. Cyclical
Cons. Non-Cyclical

4000 Health Care, 71% pharmaceuticals, some providers and other supplies.
10.05% = 1.7 trillion

1000 Basic Materials, chemicals, metals and gold are the major areas, comprising 67% of this sector's market cap. Coal and timber don't seem to be as important as I thought they would be.
7.37% = 1.2 trillion

9000 Technology, Computer services and software are almost 50% of this sector, the internet a mere 1%, the rest is hardware and electronics.
4.85% = 0.8 trillion

5000 Consumer Services, over 60% retail and restaurants, media is especially significant also and to a lesser extent catering and leisure.
7.74% = 1.3 trillion

6000 Telecommunications, 70% fixed line, 30% mobile.
4.47% = 0.7 trillion

7000 Utilities, 66% electricity not including "multiutilities", gas and water are not as significant.
3.65% = 0.6 trillion

Name: Happy Customer 2013-03-08 2:23

I purchased my copy of Sambo Charles' Stock Investment Tips two years ago. I now have millions of dollars to throw around, all of my material desires are fulfilled, and I can bed any woman I want! Thanks, Sambo!

...And yet, I still feel a cold emptiness inside me. All this wealth allows me a temporary distraction from my inner pain, but this dreadful feeling always returns eventually, keeping me up at night. Why hasn't this immeasurable wealth brought the joy I had expected? I act cheerful around my "friends," drinking the finest champagne and enjoying only the best hand-rolled cigars, but is this lifestyle just a sorry replacement for some sort of attainable true happiness that I missed out on? Will I ever feel like life is worth living? At this point, it seems unlikely.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-08 17:04

>>97
You seem to be mistaken as I started this thread less than 4 months ago.

Happiness isn't really a consideration for me, I just have to obtain muh million because I am misunderstood and becoming a nurse is not the job for me. It is a simple choice really. There is little difference between having the ability to gain wealth and spend it wisely to become happy or some other ability to become happy that does not require great wealth.

Name: Carlos ZAMBA !DYYknsVp7Y 2013-03-08 17:08

Hola me name es carlos zamba yo soy rich con el booko de sambo charles my prima es real

Name: Anonymous 2013-03-08 17:10

>>98
I was only kidding around, silly!

But yeah, if you want it, go for it.

Sambo>Buffet

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-08 18:14

>>99
hola primo, me hablar muchos español, mucho gusto
>>100
Thanks for the help out. Of the great investors like Buffet, Soros and Paul Tudor Jones I seem to most resemble Jesse Livermore, some of my ideas resemble that of George Soros, I believe that stocks gravitate towards an "ideal" which resembles Soros' application of reflexivity in economics whereby stocks move towards their equilibrium, fluctuating erratically within a margin of error, until market conditions change, the goal of an investor is to understand the limitations of factors that alter this equilibrium and to search for them and apply them in order to make predictions with a certain degree of accuracy, then to find stocks that are highly undervalued or overvalued and help "move" them.

The problem is I never originally intended to go into finance, Livermore was in a similar situation when he arrived at Boston at the age of 14 with no formal education.

Name: idpurpose !eoPD6MpjJM 2013-03-09 2:04

Sorry I have been gone guys, got banned for trolling /sci/

http://s24.postimage.org/9sgyhulk5/le_hw_thread.png

wish I could have updated you on the happenings, anyway... so I bought back into NOG when oil crossed back over 91, bought options and made a very healthy sum, economy may run yet on good economic reports form asia and us, I think oil will maintain it's 90 support now, so NOG is a great stock in that scenario, although soon we will start taking take profits at 16, probably hold onto some options.
ll
Holding onto our euro shorts as insurance for market pullback.

CNAM you may have noticed crashed as I was predicting, we were waiting for this opportunity and bought another 1% of the company on the pullback under .32, it was an amazing opportunity.

Name: idpurpose !eoPD6MpjJM 2013-03-09 2:40

>>82
>Wouldn't increasing supply decrease price?

yes it would, but the keystone will not increase supply, pipelines do not make oil they make transporting it easier.

It will decrease north america domestic supply it, by allowing Canada an easy route to an export market. The oil from canada has to go somewhere right?  It goes to the closest place possible.. the US. But we already have too much oil.

Oil overseas is around 110$ in the US it's 90 due to glut of over supply. Price can't gap much lower though even with oversupply because of the export price differential, if the gap between us oil prices and international oil pries becomes too high, than oil will start to sell off overseas regardless of the increased transportation costs.

>Why are you shorting the euro?

Insurance, if global markets start to collapse, the euro will get hit the hardest due to the already weak state of europe, fear of government debt burden collapse necessitating vast printing of money. Money will fly to US dollars for safety. If there was a global market crash I forecast euro to go to parity with the dollar. It think even with good economic situation it should come back too 1.2 at least. Also europe is stuck in recession while rest of world shows strong gdp growth, the rest of the world is easing, so if europe is going to get the hint, europe will start easing too, if they want their economy to grow, this policy shift will kill the euro price.

>I'm guessing Obama's go ahead to the $85 billion cuts and the fallout from China's attempt to cool its potentially bubbling real estate market are responsible.

yeah that is part of the story, but if the core economy keeps putting up solid numbers these policy decisions will not have a material impact. But it doses go onto my radar screen, I look for any sign of domestic economy weakness constantly.

>Does this mean China Armco Metals will take longer to pick up?

China armco has already suffered form 2012 enormously, going forward this might temper the forecast somewhat. Forecast form leading chinese steel producers are still for growth in 2013, 2012 was so bad for steel, it cannot possibly get any worse, and inventories are much lower now, even a reduction in demand would not reduce output below 2012 levels.

However as part of attempting to reduce steel demand and housing demand, PRC is also concurrently trying to reduce pollution. As part of that china is boosting recycling initiatives, and the price of iron ore is still high enough to boost scrap demand significantly intrinsically even without govt intervention. China Armco was selected by the PRC as a demonstration base for energy efficient example for the rest of the industry running their energy efficient plant and operating some of their yard equipment on electricity and not diesel like others.

Quarterly report on the 28th will blow the stock up regardless of market conditions, the profit will catch the attention of everyone who follows the stock, it shoudln't be a surprise honestly, but I have learned that people usually do not pay attention to the numbers until they are shoved into their faces on official documents. I already know what the quarterly report will say. I Alfred know the sales numbers the gross and net profit to within ~15% of the actual, the numbers will surprise everyone even though all the info is available for them to find. that will be the real driver of stock price, as sad as it is, with a stock like this in penny land, people have very very short time horizons, they rarely invest long term, it's a habit form the penny market, few mutual funds who are the true long term market players venture there. So in reality it almost hardly matters what their yearly forecast is, people want profits and improvement now not later, and they will get it.

>NOG is having their earnings announcement.

huh? No that is not an earnings announcement, that is simply yahoo posting their data to the website late as always, their earnings were a while ago that's why I liked the stock.

Name: Anonymous 2013-03-09 3:21

>>102
The funny thing is that you are not even trolling

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-09 20:16

>>102
What do you think of this?

' >The Law Firm of Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Launches an Investigation into Possible Breaches of Fiduciary Duty by the Board of Directors of China Armco Metals, Inc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/article/2013-03-05/akIKpY4V0NA0.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shareholder-alert-the-law-firm-of-levi-korsinsky-llp-launches-an-investigation-into-possible-breaches-of-fiduciary-duty-by-the-board-of-directors-of-china-armco-metals-inc-2013-03-05

I assume your visit to China proves that there isn't some massive conspiracy and involvement by the people's republic in the business means Yao probably wouldn't dare screwing around even if he wanted to. Not sure what Levi & Korsinsky's motivations are, probably just have nothing else to do and are hoping there is a case in there somewhere, or maybe someone paid them to investigate. Why would they publicly reveal their investigation instead of observing them covertly? Or have they already been doing so?


Oil is a very large sector yet it involves a single industry which means it takes less time to research and observe, though oil is saturated with investors. I can see 3 areas which could result in opportunities.

http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2013/03/Crude-Oil-Price-Mar-8-2013/18809
http://oilprice.com/commodity-price-charts?1=&page=chart&sym=CLJ13&name=Crude%20Oil%20WTI&domain=advancedmedia&sg=true&display_ice=1&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&type=CANDLE

Expansion into unconventional oil, fracking, offshore rigs and expansion into obscure areas like Siberia and Alaska, possibly Antarctica and the Arctic in the distant future.


Expansion into areas that have recently gained security. Yemen has liberalized and oil exports are increasing, the situation on the border between Sudan and South Sudan is unstable but with Malik Agar's constant reminders they should receive the help they need.

http://news.sudanvisiondaily.com/details.html?rsnpid=219258

At the moment the Sahara is insecure as indicated by the recent attack on an Algerian gas plant, international military support should see the Mali Islamists defeated in pitched battle, it is the irregular terrorists, insurgents and guerrillas that I am worried about. Libya, Chad and Nigeria form a buffer zone stretching across Africa, Libya's new prime minister Ali Zeidan is a moderate so Libya shouldn't be a weak link in the chain for long. Mauritania appears to be the linchpin for preventing the resupply of the Islamist irregulars and it seems Algeria has had the same line of thought and Mauritania is putting effort into stopping the terrorists despite being an impoverished country with problems of its own.

http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2013/02/26/feature-04
http://www.peacenewspaper.net/?p=2077

If the security situation improves and investors are still prejudiced against the region due to its past that might result in some undervalued companies.


There are various bureaucratic obstructions to free trade in oil, fracking permits, the late Chavez's old policies, OPEC decisions, the Falklands and sanctions on Iran spring to mind. When these obstacles are removed it can result in large swings in the market.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-09 20:20

>>103
Ok, so it wouldn't affect prices upstream. Derp. Lower transportation costs means businesses midstream will prefer to buy from the WTI market instead of the Brent market, increasing demand. I view the oil pipeline as much a part of the infrastructure as the oil rigs, I ignored how the production chain is distributed among market actors, I am a human and make mistakes, that is why I am asking questions and throwing my ideas onto the internet for criticism of course.

Yes, the EU has financial problems unseen elsewhere in the developed world yet it is electing unconcerned parties, the US has less debt and these cuts prove something is being done. Quantitative easing conjures up images of Bernanke throwing money out of helicopters and bubble and bust though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zCKXJKzs5s&t=3m40s

If financial capital is increased but not the economy's capacity to support new growth, doesn't this just destabilize prices and reduce the competition for capital? Doesn't the government have to take on debt to support it? Doesn't it increase inflation hurting savings? The Paultards keep saying it's happening anyway.

' >that is simply yahoo posting their data to the website late as always
I noticed this problem and now routinely look for multiple sources for the same information.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-09 20:59

>>103
I meant to say any decrease in overall costs through the supply chain, from the rig to the pump, will result in lower prices overall and a pressure to increase supply. Oil has high elasticity of supply. As you say despite the slight decrease in prices overall, the increase in prices due to WTI gaining a larger market share should be far greater. The pipeline will allow WTI crude to be sold at higher prices on the world market.

Name: idpurpose !eoPD6MpjJM 2013-03-10 4:51

>>105

>The Law Firm of Levi & Korsinsky

A few things.

First
This actually makes me want to buy the stock more. Simple historical analysis shows this announcement from Levi & Korsinsky is followed by large rises in stock price almost ALL of the time. In fact I was thinking of using there announcements to screen stocks to purchase. I surely can;t prove anything, but I suspect these guys are involved in foul play in trying to suppress stock prices when people want to buy a stock.

Second
Look how many "investigations" they have launched.
http://www.google.com/#q=SHAREHOLDER+ALERT:+Levi+%26+Korsinsky&hl=en&safe=off&ei=VkI8UemhCJOa9QS8wIDIAg&start=10&sa=N&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&fp=1b3ca709867a17bf&biw=1347&bih=711

They launch maybe several "investigations" a day, almost every company on the NYSE has been "investigated". If there was anything to their story they would have put ore details than breach of fiduciary duty.. imo. The only time there investigation PR's ever materialize into an actual lawsuit, is when they provide more info about a specific cause.

And lastly they are concerned with protecting shareholders, so actually a lawsuit might not even be a bad thing for shareholders depending on what precisely it is.

Long story short, it's 99% chance of nothing and even if it was something, not necessarily even bad for you, if you react to this news you are probably getting fleeced. imo, it is probably related somehow to someone wanting to buy large volume of stock.. just my opinion. The people who have been trading for awhile completely ignore this tripe. there are even some stocks where these announcements have short circuited and they release the same announcement almost every other week, kind of hilarious, makes me think these "!!!SHAREHOLDER ALERTS!!!" are somehow automated.


Additionally if CNAM was running a scam they are doing it wrong, their balance sheet is empty of cash and they have been loosing money for years. LOL, I have seen a lot of chinese scams, they all report profits and lots of cash in the bank that they don't have. the only assets CNAM reports are tangible which I have seen with my own eyes. I have seen their scrap metal inventories and calculated their tonnages. I saw the trucks taking out the material on an unscheduled visit and many workers at the plant very busy. Among some other things. If the investigation was legitimate imo, it would probably be related to the recent stock offering CNAM did at .50 cents a share. Someone might be mad and thinks .50 is too cheap, that's the only plausible scenario I can come up with becasue all the risks involved in the business were clearly expressed in all their releases, and thier balance sheets and reports are very well done, especially for a Chinese company, most Chinese companies have shitty accounting practices, CNAM's is very good better than a lot of other NYSE companies, and they don't fluff their balance sheet with silly crap like intangibles and goodwill.

>If the security situation improves and investors are still prejudiced against the region due to its past that might result in some undervalued companies.

I like this way of thinking, seems like something worth looking into, but remember investors have more to worry about than physical insecurity, things like corruption, ect are just as big a threat or even bigger really. Pakistan imo, looks attractive right now. Very very cheap companies, and a lot of experienced IT people, actually getting more and more skilled every year, who work for a  fraction of what western IT companies charge.

>If financial capital is increased but not the economy's capacity to support new growth, doesn't this just destabilize prices and reduce the competition for capital? Doesn't the government have to take on debt to support it? Doesn't it increase inflation hurting savings?

I am primarily a keynesian, and when I was younger I used to believe the paul stuff. Since then i have become wiser and see benefits to each side.

The key reason keynesian is the right way to go right now imo, is precisely becasue of debt and wages that are non competitive. Flushing the market with money will help alleviate debt stress, devalue the currency making paying off debt easier, and stimulate spending due to more inflation. The devaluation of the currency should encourage more tourism to Europe and more exports, while at the same time rasiing the costs of material goods, encouraging more efficient systems, and also the european govts can reduce taxes on many imports and VATs, they have room to accommodate this increased expense without disrupting their economy.

The key thing about keynesian imo, is trying to maximize the value added benefit of the money pumped through the economy to keep things flowing, done irresponsibly it can cause long term net  value destruction. And keynesian policies should be rolled back in favor of more traditional economic policies at times of economic robustness.

I think both philosophies are valid however they each should be utilized at different terms in the economic cycle, with care to avoid sudden disruption and utilize slow transition.

Europe desperately needs a weaker currency, or even a currency break up imo. Maybe two classes of currency one for countries with low bond yields and another for countries with high bond yields.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-11 2:46

>>108
I guess it is a form of advertising then. Some of their other SHAREHOLDER ALERTS contain far more information. Many others are exactly the same as the SHAREHOLDER ALERT on China Armco Metals and lacking information.

google: levi korsinsky fiduciary

' >but remember investors have more to worry about than physical insecurity, things like corruption
Yes, I must always factor in the consequences of taking risk, I should not only look at potential risks when researching a potential buy but throughout the entire process, such as choosing where to direct research as I am now.

I was thinking more in terms of companies like CNAM which is based in San Mateo, it had to achieve the standards needed to be listed on the NYSE and is exposed to the likes of Levi & Korsinsky but does all its business in China, US level corruption, Chinese growth. I am looking for companies that are trying to open up new oil reserves, maybe some joint efforts with western oil giants and perhaps have some backing by the government and leading figures in the country with no unusual behavior. The financial sector is an area I am looking into and at the moment I have much more confidence in the certainties of a tangible industry like oil than the speculative nature of finance.

Keynes didn't always assume apparent liquidity traps are entirely due to lack of aggregate demand or psychological causes, I can't help but think that Keynesianism is being misused, Keynes once said to Hayek that he believed there should be more government planning but it should be managed by people who share the same views as Hayek.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-12 2:07

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SNFCA+Interactive#symbol=snfca;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Looking at the past year I noticed 3 upwards trends each beginning in May, August and November 2012, these seemed to correspond to quarterly reports showing increased mortgage revenue with little change in

Three Months Ended March 31
Mortgage fee income 25,490,584

Three Months Ended June 30
Mortgage fee income 35,087,056

Three Months Ended September 30
Mortgage fee income 43,294,916

before then mortgage fees had gradually decreased

2009
144,274,227
36 million per quarter average

2010
97,342,215
24 million per quarter average

2011
77,605,105
19 million per quarter average

and naturally the company ended up devalued despite having the potential for higher revenue.

There are a variety of reasons for this.

Security national apparently targets "niche" markets and also restructured its business recently.

http://www.securitynational.com/stock/pdf/press/04-02-2012.pdf
' >Over the last 24 months we have spent considerable effort converting what had been a wholesale mortgage origination sales force to a retail mortgage origination sales force. The cost of that conversion, both in terms of dollar outlay and management time has been significant. Whereas previously we had been as much as 90% wholesale and 10% retail we are now 71% retail and 29% wholesale in our originations. In addition, significantly, we believe our percentage of purchase related transactions is significantly higher than national averages which indicates a more stable origination platform.

Apparently the mortgage market is booming at the moment.
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/us-mortgage-market-booming-60275.aspx

I would need in-depth knowledge of the mortgage market to notice these trends and to constantly monitor mortgage lenders to find such a business.

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-12 2:10

with little change in insurance or death care revenues security national's 2 other main economic activities.*

Name: idpurpose !eoPD6MpjJM 2013-03-12 3:23

>110

I have not had a chance but to do a cursory look over of SNFCA. But everything I see looks very good. 56 million in cash, low risk.

0 !!! dilution of common stock

very low to 0 intangibles and goodwill

consistent growth and earnings beats

low institution interest

small capitalization

growth' industry, think mortgages are coming back as well

large margins, and revenues exceeding administrative cost growth

very good peg and p/e

high revenue to market capitalization


My PRIMARY concerns with this stock would be

1) can they maintain their margins, reading over their reports and listening to conference calls might gleam more light on this question

2) Since they are a small cap, have they adequately balanced their risks on their insurance policies, larger amount of policies usually carries less risk, although AIG proved that isn't always the case

3) Serial expectations of earnings beats may create a pullback on a failure to surprise again, although the attractive valuation seems to suggest that is not the case.


If those three concerns are non-issues that the stock looks like a very good buy. Excellent pick I think. I'll look into it further

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-12 15:23

>>112
I'm not suggesting anyone put their money on it. The initial surge in prices is over and I expect it to behave erratically and not reach its peak again any time soon, the market cap to after-tax profit ratio is about average, their comprehensive income until September 2012 trailing 9 months was 9 million, I predict their likely comprehensive income for 2012 will be between 11 and 15 million, compared to a market cap of 81 million plus 25 million debt it is an average investment, not ideal. I was just wondering what prompted the spike in prices, by investigating I have been brushing up on my understanding of fixed maturity securities, options, bonds, equity securities and jargon.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011, SecurityNational Mortgage originated and sold 9,578 loans ($1,737,214,000 total volume) and 5,682 loans ($959,730,000 total volume), respectively.

On March 19, 2012, SecurityNational Mortgage and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (“Wells Fargo”) entered into a loan purchase agreement in which Wells Fargo agreed to provide a warehouse line of up to $55,000,000 to fund certain approved mortgage loans originated by SecurityNational Mortgage of up to 90% of the purchase price of the loans.  On August 6, 2012, SecurityNational Mortgage and Wells Fargo agreed to an amendment to the March 19, 2012 loan purchase agreement to increase the amount of the warehouse line available to fund mortgage loans originated by SecurityNational Mortgage from $55,000,000 to $75,000,000 and to increase the percentage of the purchase price of the mortgage loans that Wells Fargo would fund from up to 90% to up to 95%.

 On July 16, 2012, SecurityNational Mortgage and UBS Real Estate Securities Inc. (“UBS”) entered into a loan purchase agreement in which UBS agreed to provide a warehouse line of up to $30,000,000 to fund mortgage loans originated by SecurityNational Mortgage.  Under the terms of this loan purchase agreement, UBS will provide funding for certain approved mortgage loans originated by SecurityNational Mortgage of up to 95% of the purchase price of the loans. On October 26, 2012, SecurityNational Mortgage and UBS agreed to an amendment to the July 16, 2012 loan purchase agreement to increase the amount of the warehouse line available to fund mortgage loans originated by SecurityNational Mortgage from $30,000,000 to $40,000,000.


115 million doesn't seem much compared to the reported 1.7 billion total volume but this is on top of other sources of capital, Wells Fargo and UBS may have agreed to further increases in the meantime and it shows they can continue their successful retail mortgage strategy with less pressure to raise interest rates.

http://www.securitynational.com/press.asp

Presumably their annual report should be released on the 2nd of April, I'll just monitor share prices and return to this then. I should be looking at the broader financial market instead of fixating on this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-usa-fed-qe-idUSBRE92B06L20130312

From September the fed has been buying mortgage backed securities from banks like Wells Fargo and there is a small chance they may decide to wind it down, slight fears they might do so may depress the market slightly, then if they announce there will be no change it will rise slightly.

Name: Anonymous 2013-03-12 19:50

Does it bother anyone that Europe is getting a excessive amount of free cash from the Federal Reserve? Especially Spain and Italy?

http://dis.4chan.org/read/games/1195751279/1-40

Name: Anonymous 2013-03-12 19:57

Move to Puerto Rico. It's one of the last American colonies to provide tax-immunity.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/paulson-said-explore-puerto-rico-090000186.html

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-13 16:28

>>114
Here is the link provided in that thread.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-09/fed-injects-record-100-billion-reserves-foreign-banks-operating-us-past-week
I presume the reason money is going to foreign banks is because these banks conduct a lot of business in the US, though I suppose there is some potential for abuse.

I would like to know what his sources are which show the banks the fed buys bonds from or lends to. This provides some information but not the size of transactions with a company within a certain time period.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_current.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
It might be worth scanning the headlines of this site once a day, they are politically biased but they seem to be good at collecting information.

>>115
I'd rather focus on predicting something like this

' >Paulson rose to fame in 2007 with a successful bet that subprime mortgages would tumble.

then play it safe and be a good citizen after I have muh million.

Name: idpurpose !eoPD6MpjJM 2013-03-14 9:08

Euro is starting to slip, good time to pile on the shorts here, oil is also rallying in the us market, NOG is not following the move much because of options expirary week. I expect NOG is held under pressure till next week under ~15 and then rally, if not before.

CNAM prices are looking very attractive right now. They addressed at least partially the 'investigation' .30 is a very good price to buy in if you can, if you are less risk prone I recommend buying in just before earnings on the 28th. It could quickly double or triple.

Name: idpurpose !eoPD6MpjJM 2013-03-14 23:53

Here is my technical analysis for CNAM, as you can see history repeats itself in eerie fashion on the chart, the only difference this time is instead of a hugely disappointing Q2 they will have a spectacular Q4 year end report.

My price target for CNAM to trade in the week after the earnings report is .60-.80, but I won;t even pretend like .800 is a cap becasue in penny land things can explode without adequate warning, but that would be  good spot to take profits to cover your investment and hang onto the remainder.

You can see the stunning Slow Stochastic repeat, very very low odds that this pattern breaks until news. so therefore .29-.30 should be the bottom, and the stock should slowly climb its way back up to .35-.40 over the ext two weeks before earnings on March 28th

http://s23.postimage.org/gehzcxwxl/history_repeats.png

Name: idpurpose !eoPD6MpjJM 2013-03-15 2:09

MAJOR ALERT!!! MAJOR ALERT!!!!!

RUMOR IS NOG is GOING TO BE BOUGHT OUT FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE PRICE up to 25$-30$!!!!!!!!!


BUY OPTIONS ON THIS FUCKER NOW!!!!!! IT COULD MAKE YOU  A MILLIONAIRE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW THOUSAND DOLLARS!!!!

I REPEAT BUY FUCKING FAST!!!
BUY THE OPTIONS AROUND 17-18$ they are selling for PENNIES!! could be worth DOLLARS!!!!!!

Name: Sambo Charles !TzcAECrLis 2013-03-15 6:31

I have found myself using this alongside yahoo finance and google finance, more so than the general random things I find on search engines.

http://investing.businessweek.com

I have also been looking at various "hot stock picks" on the internet though obviously this comes with a healthy dose of skepticism. I remember doing this earlier and looking at Igas which jumped up quite a bit in December. I can quite confidently say I would have sold before the 1st of January and made 20% returns, 50% if I predicted it earlier.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IGAS.L

On the other hand I would have known that it is speculation and could collapse at any time if some rumor surfaced, there were other investments that did not go so well. Maybe it is a good idea just to look at these hyped picks and research them yourself.

I can clearly see the problem with diversifying too much. One method of researching a market is to look for possible reasons for growth in a sector and find the companies affected by it, so obviously keeping track of things is important. I have been looking at various indicators and sectors and randomly picking companies to study, though like Security National Financial Corp there are reasons to believe stock might increase but there is always a reason not to buy and like you say this is reason enough to put it back on the shelf. Recent high gains are a gamble, it is difficult to tell when a mini-bubble will burst, potential sector wide increases narrow down searches but still growth is usually quite slow on a company per company basis. Taking the initiative to find information and make original inferences is my main concern so I need to develop my ability to find and identify useful information. The oil sector is more favorable to me even if some indicators suggest it has less potential, due to the ease of collecting information and perhaps because the financial sector as a whole is more volatile, on the other hand volatility might be a good thing, Livermore selling short before stock market crashes and Paulson betting against subprime mortgages springs to mind. Once I hone in on a sector most of these information processing problems shouldn't be a problem, there are only a few 100 businesses in a subsector per country and that would be no problem for me to get to grips with. In theory, I could handle maybe 10 a day and cover the entire NYSE, but I think I will just test my abilities first and gain a better impression of how to use my limited mental capacity.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?code=40&region=US

Studying one sector of the economy that is growing then a year later when growth slows in that sector moving on and starting on a new sector seems to be a good idea.

SEC filings
conference calls
dilution
intangibles and goodwill
growth and earnings
institution interest
capitalization
industry growth
margins, and revenues
administrative cost growth
peg and p/e
revenue to market capitalization

These are useful indicators and I will school myself in them until they are like bread and butter to me and I can confirm and monitor a reasonable large number of companies. However I still need ways to narrow the list down.

tl;dr could do with some search protips.

>>117
The market is quite bullish at the moment, every sector is mostly green. What are the chances of it lasting till the 28th?
>>118
It is like a drained pond that cannot drain any further, if you are right then not only is it undervalued but there is little potential for it to lose further value reducing risk and making it more desirable. If your predictions are wrong then the worst that will happen is you have done the equivalent of keep your money in a bank account for a few months.
>>119
I already have a token buy in NOG and if the price almost doubles it will be like winning a bet for me, like Anika which incidentally has been hovering around 14, which I believed was the maximum. Whole numbers like 12, 13, 14 and 15 are self-fulfilling prophecies, looking back at stock history the average stock price was between 13 or 14, rarely hitting 15, so 14 was probably worth waiting for.

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