Name: Anonymous 2009-12-09 5:37
'soup, /sci/? I've got a problem. I'm talking to this girl, and she's apparently some kind of math nerd who likes probability. She's got three pieces of paper, and wrote her phone number down on one. She knows which has her number, and which two don't. She asked me to pick one, then got rid of one of the wrong choices. After that, she asked if I wanted to change the one I picked, or go with it. I'd either get her number--or not.
Now, I'm no genius, but I'm going a little nuts here. At first, there was a 1/3 change of getting her number, but there was a 2/3 chance of getting to know Rosey Palm better.
Is there now a 1/2 shot that the paper I picked has her number, or is it still a 1/3 based on the circumstances of my last selection?
WHAT SHOULD I DO?
Now, I'm no genius, but I'm going a little nuts here. At first, there was a 1/3 change of getting her number, but there was a 2/3 chance of getting to know Rosey Palm better.
Is there now a 1/2 shot that the paper I picked has her number, or is it still a 1/3 based on the circumstances of my last selection?
WHAT SHOULD I DO?