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Statistic Sample distributions help

Name: Anonymous 2009-03-15 22:38

Hey /sci/ wondering if anyone could help me with this problem.

Four friends meet for an evening of cards. Being an experienced poker player, Alex has a greater chance than his three friends of winning any given round of poker. It is known that for every round of poker,
        P("Alex wins") = 0.56     P("David wins") = 0.24
It is assumed that what happens on each round of poker is independent from the results of the previous rounds.

What is the probability that Alex would win at least 9 out of the next 10 rounds of poker?

I have the solution to this, but I cant figure out how it is calculated. It would be much appreciated if someone could help.

Name: Anonymous 2009-03-16 3:47

OK, since the question just asks about Alex, we can completely ignore the David information as extraneous.  The situation is binary:  on any trial (round), Alex wins, or Alex does not win.  P(A)=0.56, P(not A)=0.44.

To answer probability for "win at least 9 of 10", find the probability for "win exactly 9 of 10" and "win exactly 10 of 10", and add the two probabilities together.

The formula for binomial probability for k successes out of n trials is given by nCkpk(1 - p)n - k, where nCk is the number of combinations of choosing k items from a set of n items.  Your calculator may have a key with that formula built in, or you may even have a TI graphing calculator as is common in schools now that has binomial probability function built in too.

Name: Anonymous 2009-03-16 13:19

Also, don't forget that the question specifies Alex winning "at least 9" rather than "exactly 9" out of ten rounds.

Name: Anonymous 2009-03-16 20:31

=BINOMDIST(9,10,0.54,FALSE)+BINOMDIST(10,10,0.54,FALSE)

this is how i roll

Don't change these.
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