Name: Anonymous 2008-09-11 1:31
OVERALL...IKE iz A LARGE CYCLONE...AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT da EXTENT o’ WINDS OF
HURRICANE an’ TROPICAL STORM FORCE haz INCREASED...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF da CIRCULATION CENTER. PARADOXICALLY...IKE haz A VERY SMALL
INNER CORE...AND da EYE haz A DIAMETER o’ ONLY ABOUT 8 ta 10 N MI.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE haz b’in STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN ta ABOUT
944 MB...BUT da WINDS haz no way YET RESPONDED. da INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS.
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST iz CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE
EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES. SINCE da thang COULD DISINTEGRATE
AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD
EDDY IN da CENTRAL GULF DURING da NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
COULD WEAKEN. if’in...HOWEVER...THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS
INTACT...AND GIVEN da RECENT PRESSURE FALLS...IKE COULD STRENGTHEN
SOME AS REFLECTED IN da OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE
UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG da FORECAST
TRACK...AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING iz FORECAST AT 36-48
HOURS. da NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST iz A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT iz SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND
IS ROUGHLY A BLEND o’ da HWRF an’ GFDL...BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND
LGEM. da APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 an’ 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING
INLAND...BUT NO WEAKENING TREND iz ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP
TO FINAL LANDFALL.
THE CENTER o’ IKE haz CONTINUED ta MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A
LITTLE ta da RIGHT o’ da PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY an’ da LAST FIX FROM da NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS da TURN TOWARD da WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING da NEXT 48 HOURS ta da SOUTH o’ A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT iz FORECAST ta BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE o’ DAYS...ALL o’ da MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE ta DEVELOP OVER TEXAS an’ EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN ta THE
NORTHWEST an’ NORTH...BUT da niggas DO no way AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR. da HWRF iz ON da LEFT SIDE o’ da GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER an’ LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE ta TURN
INTO da GALVESTON AREA. da OTHER MODELS iz IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH iz no way APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE da MODEL CONSENSUS haz BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE da TIMING o’ da TURN BEFORE LANDFALL iz SO UNCERTAIN an’ SO
KEY IN WHERE da CORE o’ IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING da RIDGE an’ no way goin’ IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD no way FOCUS ON da EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA haz ABOUT da SAME RISK o’ HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT da EXTENT o’ WINDS OF
HURRICANE an’ TROPICAL STORM FORCE haz INCREASED...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF da CIRCULATION CENTER. PARADOXICALLY...IKE haz A VERY SMALL
INNER CORE...AND da EYE haz A DIAMETER o’ ONLY ABOUT 8 ta 10 N MI.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE haz b’in STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN ta ABOUT
944 MB...BUT da WINDS haz no way YET RESPONDED. da INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS.
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST iz CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE
EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES. SINCE da thang COULD DISINTEGRATE
AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD
EDDY IN da CENTRAL GULF DURING da NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
COULD WEAKEN. if’in...HOWEVER...THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS
INTACT...AND GIVEN da RECENT PRESSURE FALLS...IKE COULD STRENGTHEN
SOME AS REFLECTED IN da OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE
UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG da FORECAST
TRACK...AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING iz FORECAST AT 36-48
HOURS. da NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST iz A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT iz SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND
IS ROUGHLY A BLEND o’ da HWRF an’ GFDL...BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND
LGEM. da APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 an’ 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING
INLAND...BUT NO WEAKENING TREND iz ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP
TO FINAL LANDFALL.
THE CENTER o’ IKE haz CONTINUED ta MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A
LITTLE ta da RIGHT o’ da PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY an’ da LAST FIX FROM da NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS da TURN TOWARD da WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING da NEXT 48 HOURS ta da SOUTH o’ A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT iz FORECAST ta BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE o’ DAYS...ALL o’ da MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE ta DEVELOP OVER TEXAS an’ EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN ta THE
NORTHWEST an’ NORTH...BUT da niggas DO no way AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR. da HWRF iz ON da LEFT SIDE o’ da GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER an’ LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE ta TURN
INTO da GALVESTON AREA. da OTHER MODELS iz IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH iz no way APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE da MODEL CONSENSUS haz BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE da TIMING o’ da TURN BEFORE LANDFALL iz SO UNCERTAIN an’ SO
KEY IN WHERE da CORE o’ IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING da RIDGE an’ no way goin’ IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD no way FOCUS ON da EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA haz ABOUT da SAME RISK o’ HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.