WAIT GUISE, NVM, I JUST FIGURED OUT HOW THAT SHIT WORKS!
THIS THREAD IS NOW ABOUT BAKLAVA.
Name:
Anonymous2008-04-12 8:03
lern2 wikipedia
Name:
Anonymous2008-04-12 8:06
Of further interest is the psychology as to why people believe the 2 remaining choices are equal. People see no reason to methodically analyse the problem from the beginning, whether due to mental laziness or it just never occurred to them. If it is due to laziness, well done, you are competent and the solution is obviously to be less lazy. If it never occurred to you then you have a problem, I will admit it never occurred to me to methodically analyse the problem from the beginning, I just assumed the choice has been narrowed down and it was now 50/50.
Name:
Anonymous2008-04-12 13:41
I thought the dead parrot sketch was good, but the show started to lose something towards the end
Name:
Anonymous2008-04-12 14:30
In all fairness, I went through all the Bayesian bullshit to prove mathematically that you should always switch, and I still wasn't convinced until I set up a simulation and ran it for a few thousand trials.
It's just a really unintuitive result.
Name:
Anonymous2008-04-12 19:41
>>6
Not when you consider that you were initially more likely to choose a dud...
Name:
Anonymous2008-04-15 10:57
>>6
It's only counter-intuitive if you have three doors, which is the minimum for the problem to be stated. What if there were a hundred doors, and after making your choice, the quizmaster opens 98 revealing goats, and leaves one still closed. In that case it becomes obvious why you should always swap.