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China: An emerging super power?

Name: Anonymous 2009-08-13 9:14

I keep hearing that China is going to become so very powerful and soon.

I honestly don't think China will be a super power soon, they have too many internal problems (rift between rich and poor, corruption, enviornment, various social issues, etc...)

Is it just people talking about things they don't really know anything about or is there some truth to this?  Thoughts?

Name: Anonymous 2009-08-13 15:28

The answer to that question has, with varying degrees of accuracy, filled many books.  My first thought, as an American who has lived in China, is that the idea of global superpowers is Western, and analyzing them based on our contemporary political/economic ideas leaves a woefully incomplete picture.
First some perspective.  China's population accounts for about 20% of the population of the world.  They are followed by India, representing about 17%.  For perspective the USA comes in third, representing about 5%.  So China is 1/5th and the USA is 1/20th.  Add to this the fact that the Chinese are flat out a more highly socialized(I mean culturally, not political/economically) and cohesive society, and you have a force to be reckoned with.  They have the largest army in the world, the USA is around the 6th, and the fourth largest number of nukes, the USA is of course #1 there, so China is a country that is already, undeniably, a "Super Power".  There's no emerging about it.
Regarding the internal problems you mentioned:  I'd like to see the statistics on the distribution of wealth in China, and in the USA normalized and compared.  I think it would surprise many people.  Corruption?  There's certainly a lot of what we would call corruption there.  The difference is in China it's practically institutionalized.  They know how to deal with it, and it's mostly about getting around the government.  Here there's tremendous corruption, but we pretend that it's unacceptable and the exception in our nations of laws.  We act surprised and indignant when someone goes too far, or makes a mistake and gets caught. Personally, though the methods are different, I don't think we are any less corrupt, and actually are more hypocritical.  The environment?  Sure the environment is worse there.  Not only are they supporting 4 times as many people in an area geographically comparable to the US, but they're also supporting us, in all the heavy industry we've farmed out to them.  Still, I'd stack up the effort they are actually putting into improving the situation against ours any day.  You don't see many Hummers in China, and you see people everywhere using solar power.  Never forget that in the overall consumption of resources, The USA and Western Europe are way out in the lead.
Two things I think about when considering China.  One, they are so cohesive that it's said that whenever they want to do something, they do it.  Quickly.  As compared to the USA, a country whose constitution is designed to slow things down, and two, the Chinese have never in their history, the longest cultural history in world history, tried to dominate the world.  They just want to be part of a community.  It's they're nature.  It's why communism was so appealing to them.  That's actually kind of funny, 'cause they love money.  They use it in some of their religious rituals!  Now that they've built themselves, in a few generations, into a modern Western style nation they're ready for the next step.  Are we ready to coexist, and continue leading in a positive direction when it's wise?  If so, then they will be great friends.  But if we fuck it up... well, lets just say you reap what you sew.

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