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Hey guys I just realized something!!!

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 0:24

In a lottery, you can only win or lose, right? So since there are only two possible outcomes, you actually have a 50% chance of winning the lottery!!! Quick guys, go buy some lottery tickets now!

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 0:43

 

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 2:07

buy 2 tickets.  you should win, right?

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 2:35

>>3
You fail probability, you have 75% chance of winning if you buy two tickest, retard.

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 2:38

>>4
You fail.  IF he has a 50% chance of winning, then 2 tickets would guarantee the win.  If one loses, then the other one must be a winner

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 5:05

You all fail. It's only probability so you can't guarantee one ticket is a winner and the other is a loser. EVEN if it is a 50% chance.

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 11:50

50%? if there were only 2 people buying tickets sure maybe. when you got a couple of thousand? maybe 1/2 * (1/1000)

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 12:43

There is a 100% chance of the government or whoever hosting the lottery earning $$.

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 13:16

>>8
Not necessarily; they could end up with a loss, e.g. if they sold fewer tickets than expected, or if there was unexpected expenditures for administration.

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-03 21:58

lrn2 Utility of Money.

The lottery isn't a ripoff (or is at least less of a ripoff than people think) because a big amount of money is actually worth disproportionately more to a person than a small amount of money.  For example, money is only worth as much as what you can buy with it.  With $1, you can buy a king-sized Snickers bar.  With $100,000, you can buy a Corvette ZR1.  Most people would rather have the car than 100,000 candy bars, so the "value" u($100,000) of a hundred thousand dollars is more than 100,000 times the value u($1) of one dollar.

So if u(X) represents a person's utility function, then the expected gain in buying a $1 lottery ticket is (using numbers from http://powerball.com/powerball/pb_prizes.asp and writing X for the grand prize amount)

1/61.74 * u(3) + 1/123.48 * u(4) + 1/787.17 * u(7) + 1/359.06 * u(7) + 1/13644.24 * u(100) + 1/19030.12 * u(100) + 1/723144.64 * u(10000) + 1/5138133 * u(200000) + 1/195,249,054 * u(X)

If the ticket purchaser has a linear utility function, u(x) = ax+b, this gives an expected value of

0.17471 a+0.0284783 b+(aX)/195249054

or a break-even point of

X = -3.41119*10^7+1.95249*10^8/a-(5.56036*10^6 b)/a

In the case a = 1, b = 0 (i.e. $100,000 *is* worth exactly 100,000 times as much as $1), this becomes $161,000,000.

Of course, with taxes and stuff, you'd probably have to double that.


tl;dr: If the powerball jackpot is in the $400 million range or higher, a ticket is actually a good investment, technically.

Name: Anonymous 2009-10-04 15:25

>>10
You talk all about how the utility function being nonlinear in reference to the candy bars and car, but then in your working you assume it is linear. Make up your mind.

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