Grad School in Math

i'm going to be a senior in college this year and applying to grad school soon.

so i'm having a really hard time figuring out what schools i can get into with my 'stats'. i kind of fucked up the first year and a half of college, and only got mediocre grades, so my gpa is 3.0 after a year of almost straight A's

i'm going for a phd in math, so the schools i'm interested in are

UC Berkeley
UCLA
U o Chicago
U o Michigan
Cornell (maybe)

i'm confident that my gre general and math subject tests will be above average, probably in the top 10-30%. so good, but not outstanding.

can i get into the schools above? or is that just unrealistic... and if so, what schools should i apply to? what would be the 'second-rate' math grad schools that would take me?

i'm currently attending UC santa cruz, and i started taking graduate classes last quarter, and i can certainly keep up with the phd program here, but i really dont like the idea of spending another 6-10 years in santa cruz. that being said, its probably the best backup-school i have.

also does being a state resident matter as much as it does for undergrad applications?

ARGHHH its so hard to find information about this, theres so many shitty grad school search websites and so much clutter from undergrad information.

tl;dr, what are some second-rate math grad schools

the profs here at university of oklahoma have an annual talk about getting into grad school thought it is meant for physics students but i would think it would be similar for math students too. They said that grades and gre scores are not that important. one of the profs was on the committee to select graduate students and she said that they will recalculate your gpa excluding your 1st year since lots of people can do poorly there 1st year. as for the gre most school dont care much for the gre scores for US students since non US students do much better on them since most of them spend an intire year or more in a gre prep course. and  since the gre only test your ability to do  basic math and science book problems. what really matters is research, since that is what you will be spending the vast majority of your time doing. if you do an REU or work for a prof for a few semesters that will be invaluable. again this was advise for physics students and I not sure if there are math REU or if you can work for a prof in math or not but you should look into it.