Neither. The West will sink into a long state of decay, and space advancement will stop. Soon enough, launchings will be given over to civilizations along the equator who are less gayfaggotly concerned about their stock options. These equatorial civilizations will do launchings for cash, but soon enough (within 50 to 70 years) they will succumb to eating their own bellies. Overall space advancement will come to a halt. Satellites will go offline one by one. Warlords will become prevalent across the world, giving Humanity something to be very concerned with over anything happening in the sky. Then, a long period of near-tribalism will begin, running several centuries, perhaps a millennium. After that, civilization will continue to decline and Humanity will never again reach beyond the atmosphere.