>>60
I am impressed. Anika hit 13, the upper end of your predicted range. You not only found an undervalued company, you also correctly predicted that the earnings report would trigger the market correction allowing you to use your capital elsewhere in the meantime, 23% gains in 2 days is far more valuable than 23% gains in a month, when annualized it comes to 2.6 million trillion % returns which is far greater than my target of 10%, if I could achieve even the tiniest fraction of that success I would gain
muh million in no time. And you also took the time to share your thoughts with random people over the internet. I feel guilty for considering the possibility that someone had concocted an elaborate plot to troll me into thinking I had come across an expert investment banker and convince me to put all my money on facebook or something. You are the real deal and I thank you for allowing me to capture a glimpse of my goal.
The "sequester deadline" is here apparently,
http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/01/17136205-sequester-deadline-day-is-here-but-the-effects-wont-be-instantaneous?lite
the budget may end up being cut by $42 billion, Obama may succeed in reducing or stopping the cuts, I don't see this directly affecting medicare or our precious orthovisc, the economic ripples might disrupt things a little.
[code]' >I like your math based approach.
My math was pretty ad-hoc, don't take it seriously yet, I am learning though. My objective is to figure out methods of quickly and effectively reviewing businesses so I have enough scope to find opportunities within a reasonable time period. There is a need to break down statistics into something more meaningful, that can be compared to statistics from other companies.
I wanted a conservative forecast of their profits to compare with their assets giving me an estimate of the percentage increase in the value of the business without regard to investor activity, as opposed to the "return on assets" statistic. A previous year's returns are not a reliable way of forecasting future returns. Enterprise value wasn't an accurate indicator, it is essentially just market capitalization + debt - cash, I may have derped some there. I will have to try and keep that to a minimum.
Anika's book value apparently tells a different story from its stock price.
http://ycharts.com/companies/ANIK/book_value_of_equity
Imagine a textile mill, $10 million assets, $1 million annual profit, its initial public offering is $10 million and the average growth rates across the country are 5%, investors will initially buy shares knowing the company is set to increase in value by 10% due to profit alone, as market capitalization (MC) increases, profit per MC (return on equity?) decreases, when MC reaches $20 million, profit per MC has decreased to 5% and most investors will be looking for other investments. If profits fall by $100K, profit per MC changes to 4.5%, if the economy is suffering at the same time and average growth drops to 4%, the "ideal" MC will rise to $22.5 million as people transfer their capital from businesses that are doing worse off until profit per MC is 4% again. This is my current impression of the price mechanism in capital markets, obviously in the real world there is far more uncertainty and irrationality but prices cannot stray too far from the "ideal" before forming a bubble or resulting in shortages/inefficiency. Criticism is welcome, these are not sacred heartfelt beliefs, I intend to amend and improve my ideas.
tl;dr I have a lot to read up on.
Schooling on all these technical details and terms.
Historical bubbles.
The potential applications of graphene and their economic feasibility.
Review sectors of the economy with the goal of finding which areas are worth focusing on.
Paul Tudor Jones
Familiarize myself with quarterly reports and conference calls.
You may have noticed I started this thread in December last year, this thread is long term so if you get busy or bored it will still be here and it shouldn't be hard to find it.