>>57
>>58
I like your math based approach. That can be a great complimentary tool, or even be a tool in of itself to use in the marketplace. However remember that markets are over saturated with quants, and human emotions are more powerful than an mathematical model that cannot quantify human emotions.
As newton was quoted as saying when asked about the price rise in the South Seas trading company.
"I can calculate the movements of the stars and heavens, but I cannot calculate human madness".. or something to that affect more or less, that's how I remember it.
I am also very bullish on graphene technology, and I would be interested in any stocks you can recommend to leverage the sector.
One stock I am very bullish on for the long term in graphene is CVV. However I am not going to issue any buy recommendations on the stock because I have not completed my research into it fully, even though I have been studying it for months. I also have many worries about short term price action in the stock. However the VERY long term fundamentals look solid if they continue to execute the next two quarters.
yes i completely agree the fundamental products and services the company is involved in are key to driving the price, and you must inspect all aspects of the operation / sector demand going forward, as well as competitor threats.
And yes many investors are very very lazy. I would go as far as saying anyone who invests into a stock without reading at least the last 4 quarterly reports and listening too the last two conference calls is a complete fool. And yet, the vast majority of investors do not even execute this MINIMAL effort.
I pride myself in becoming an expert in a select group of stocks and companies, and beating analysts forecasts. Part of the reason i can beat analysts is because i narrow my focus. And do not over diversify. Over diversifying draws your returns to a mean much like rolling a dice. Eventually you hit the mean of 3.5 and lower your potential return. It's much more profitable to focus on less rolls each with a higher probability of success.
Also I follow the mantra of Paul tudor Jones, you can read his basic philosophy on wikipedia.
Regarding why doctors profit off ORTHOVISC, it's about the multiple injections. They make most of their margins off the visits, more visits more injections = more revenue for them. Their are also practical reasons why multiple injections is in some regards superior to singular injection by spacing out the administration of the treatment. Just like administering any drug, done slower there is less patient risk, the benefits last over a longer period of time, and it affords doctors more time to inspect and judge the efficacy of the treatment and the progress, as well as patient reaction to it. However singular injection is clearly preferred by many patients for practical reasons, and as such each market will maintain it's niche, that is why there is a lot of opportunity for singular injection and multiple injection market to exist side by side.
I also think ANIK is a potential acquisition target for johnson and johnson. I have reason to believe johnson and joohnson wants to buy them ,and the minimum price they could pay is about 20 dollars a share. So there is a very bullish case to hold this stock long term, but i myself will probably slowly exit my position on the way up to limit risk. I already grew my portfolio by 20% today since I had ALOT of this stock on margin, I am almost at millionaire status, starting with 30k last year, of course I am going to get hit with enormous taxes that I am delaying paying so far this year and next, to use that capital as long s possible.
Regarding CNAM, the stock is one that is in the exact opposite of a bubble as you describe. It is so undervalued it is actually ridiculous. I expect to make at least a million dollars off of CNAM.
There are signs with CNAM right now that interest is building and consolidation is accelerating right now. I cannot predict the madness of men, and as such the stock may drop some from this point, however the odds of that are decreasing. It may fall down to .33 over the next week or two, however you must wonder how much longer it is worth it to buy into the position now for that 1-3 dollar stock price we are going to realize in late 2013. I always try to execute the lowest buy in price on the largest fundamental disconnects.
Anyway never invest money you cannot afford to loose. And do your dd.